Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams. In this case, the UKMET analysis of extratropical transition of Ignacio and "landfall" near the Alaskan border as a weakening extratropical storm.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2015112512 GFS: 2015112512
NAVGEM: 2015112512 UKM: 2015112518

Current/recent GFDL model output:

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
annabelle03s:2015112500 in-fa27w:2015112518

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
ep222015:2015112518 sh032016:2015112518
sh952016:2015112506 wp272015:2015112518

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2015112512 | 2015112506 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2015112512 | 2015112500 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2015112512 | 2015112500 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2015112512 | 2015112500 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2015112512 | 2015112500 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Thu Nov 26 00:08:06 UTC 2015