Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams. In this case, the UKMET analysis of extratropical transition of Ignacio and "landfall" near the Alaskan border as a weakening extratropical storm.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2015100612 GFS: 2015100618
NAVGEM: 2015100612 UKM: 2015100618

Current/recent GFDL model output:
eight08c:2015100612 invest91l:2015100518
invest99c:2015100518 joaquin11l:2015100212

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
choi-wan23w:2015100618 eight08c:2015100612
invest91l:2015100518 invest99c:2015100518
joaquin11l:2015100618 oho07c:2015100618

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al112015:2015100612 al912015:2015100618
cp072015:2015100618 cp082015:2015100612
cp992015:2015100518 ep952015:2015100618
io912015:2015100618 io922015:2010080812

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2015100618 | 2015100612 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2015100612 | 2015100600 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2015100612 | 2015100600 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2015100612 | 2015100600 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2015100612 | 2015100600 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Wed Oct 7 04:08:35 UTC 2015