Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

Note: ECMWF analyses are provided by TIGGE and delayed by 2-3 days by ECMWF.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case a GFS ensemble forecast of the extratropical transition of a
WPAC Typhoon that eventually becomes an intense warm seclusion extratropical cyclone).



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2014103112 ECMWF: 2014101912
GFS: 2014103112 NAVGEM: 2014103112
UKM: 2014103118

Current/recent GFDL model output:
invest95l:2014103006 twenty-on21e:2014103012
vance21e:2014103118

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
invest95l:2014103006 twenty-on21e:2014103012
vance21e:2014103118

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
New multi-satellite synthesis
al952014:2014103012 ep212014:2014103118
ep932014:2014103006 io042014:2014103112
wp202014:2014103118 wp962014:2014103100

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2014103112 | 2014103106 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014103112 | 2014103100 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014103112 | 2014103100 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014103000 | 2014102912 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014103000 | 2014102912 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Sat Nov 1 03:38:10 UTC 2014