Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GEFS ensemble forecast of hurricane Ernesto's ET following Bermuda landfall.



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2024091612 ECMWF: 2024091612
GFS: 2024091612 JMA: 2024091606
NAVGEM: 2024091112 UKMET: 2024091612

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
eight08l:2024091612 gordon07l:2024091612
invest95l:2024091512

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
eight08l:2024091612 gordon07l:2024091612
invest95l:2024091512

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
No recent AMSU retrievals

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2024082018 | 2024082012 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2023082900 | 2023082812 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2024091612 | 2024091600 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2024091100 | 2024091012 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2023082300 | 2023082212 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Mon Sep 16 22:05:14 UTC 2024