Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case the lifecycle over 10 days of UKMET analyses
of major hurricane Blanca showing prototypical TC growth and decay without any midlatitude interaction).



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2015073100 GFS: 2015073100
NAVGEM: 2015073012 UKM: 2015073100

Current/recent GFDL model output:
eight08e:2015073012 guillermo09e:2015073100
invest09e:2015073000 invest91e:2015072918
invest94l:2015073100

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
eight08e:2015073012 guillermo09e:2015073100
invest09e:2015073000 invest91e:2015072918
invest91p:2015073100 invest93w:2015073000
invest94l:2015073100 soudelor13w:2015073100
thirteen13w:2015073012 two02b:2015073018

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al942015:2015073100 ep082015:2015073018
ep092015:2015073100 ep912015:2015073000
io022015:2015073018 sh912016:2015073100
wp132015:2015073100 wp932015:2015073006
wp942015:2015073018

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2015073100 | 2015073018 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015073012 | 2015073000 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015073012 | 2015073000 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015073012 | 2015073000 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015073012 | 2015073000 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Fri Jul 31 07:18:22 UTC 2015