Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case the lifecycle over 10 days of UKMET analyses
of major hurricane Blanca showing prototypical TC growth and decay without any midlatitude interaction).

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2015070200 GFS: 2015070212
NAVGEM: 2015070200 UKM: 2015070206

Current/recent GFDL model output:
No recent GFDL runs

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
chan-hom09w:2015070212 invest94w:2015070200
invest96w:2015070200 raquel25p:2015070212
ten10w:2015070212 twenty-fi25p:2015063018

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
sh252015:2015063018 sh252016:2015070200
wp092015:2015070212 wp102015:2015070206
wp942015:2015070200 wp962015:2015070200

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2015070206 | 2015070200 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015070200 | 2015070112 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015070200 | 2015070112 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015070200 | 2015070112 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015070200 | 2015070112 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Thu Jul 2 18:10:05 UTC 2015