Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

Note: ECMWF analyses are provided by TIGGE and delayed by 2-3 days by ECMWF.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case a GFS ensemble forecast of the extratropical transition of a
WPAC Typhoon that eventually becomes an intense warm seclusion extratropical cyclone).

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2014102012 ECMWF: 2014101700
GFS: 2014102018 NAVGEM: 2014102000
UKM: 2014102012

Current/recent GFDL model output:
ana02c:2014102012 gonzalo08l:2014101912
invest92l:2014102012 invest93l:2014102012

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
ana02c:2014102018 gonzalo08l:2014101912
invest92l:2014102018 invest93l:2014102018

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
New multi-satellite synthesis
al082014:2014101918 al922014:2014102018
al932014:2014102018 cp022014:2014102012
ep202014:2014101900 sh922015:2014102012

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2014102018 | 2014102012 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014102000 | 2014101912 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014102012 | 2014102000 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014102012 | 2014102000 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014102000 | 2014101912 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Tue Oct 21 00:24:14 UTC 2014