Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case a GFS ensemble forecast of the extratropical transition of a
WPAC Typhoon that eventually becomes an intense warm seclusion extratropical cyclone).

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2015040112 GFS: 2015033018
NAVGEM: 2015040112 UKM: 2015040118

Current/recent GFDL model output:
No recent GFDL runs

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
No recent NCEP HWRF runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
sh902015:2015040112 sh912015:2015040118
sh922015:2015040100 sh932015:2015040118
wp042015:2015040118 wp992015:2015040112

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2015033018 | 2015033012 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015032600 | 2015032512 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015032600 | 2015032512 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015032600 | 2015032512 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015032600 | 2015032512 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Thu Apr 2 01:18:15 UTC 2015