Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GFS analysis of intense typhoon Jongdari making landfall in Japan which had a Sandy-like track at high latitude, may have started (but likely did not complete) extratropical transition,
and had at least three instances of Fujiwhara interaction causing looping in the TC track before and after landfall.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2019082100 ECMWF: 2019082106 (RESTRICTED)
GFS: 2019082106 JMA: 2019082100
NAVGEM: 2019082106 UKMET: 2019082100

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
chantal04l:2019082106 invest95e:2019082106
invest97e:2019082018 invest97l:2019082018
invest97w:2019082100 twelve12w:2019082106

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
chantal04l:2019082106 invest95e:2019082106

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al042019:2019082106 al972019:2019082100
ep952019:2019082106 ep972019:2019082100
wp122019:2019082106 wp972019:2019082100

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2019082106 | 2019082100 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2019082100 | 2019082012 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2019082100 | 2019082012 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2019082100 | 2019082012 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2019082100 | 2019082012 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Wed Aug 21 13:22:23 UTC 2019