Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

Note: ECMWF analyses are provided by TIGGE and delayed by 2-3 days by ECMWF.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case a forecast of classic extratropical transition of S. Indian Ocean TC Bruce).



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2014072800 ECMWF: 2014072012
GFS: 2014072518 NAVGEM: 2014072800
UKM: 2014072800

Current/recent GFDL model output:
eight08e:2014072612 genevieve07e:2014072718
hernan08e:2014072800 invest91c:2014072712
invest93e:2014072706

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
eight08e:2014072612 genevieve07e:2014072718
hernan08e:2014072800 invest91c:2014072712
invest93e:2014072706

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
New multi-satellite synthesis
No recent AMSU retrievals

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2014072518 | 2014072512 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014072712 | 2014072700 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014072800 | 2014072712 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014072612 | 2014072512 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014072412 | 2014072400 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Mon Jul 28 10:18:07 UTC 2014