Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

Note: ECMWF analyses are provided by TIGGE and delayed by 2-3 days by ECMWF.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case a forecast of classic extratropical transition of S. Indian Ocean TC Bruce).



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2014090300 ECMWF: 2014083012
GFS: 2014090300 NAVGEM: 2014090212
UKM: 2014090218

Current/recent GFDL model output:
dolly05l:2014090300 five05l:2014090200
invest93e:2014090206 invest99l:2014090112
norbert14e:2014090300

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
dolly05l:2014090300 five05l:2014090200
invest93e:2014090206 invest99l:2014090112
norbert14e:2014090300

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
New multi-satellite synthesis
al052014:2014090212 ep142014:2014090300
ep932014:2014090212 wp902014:2014090300
wp912014:2014090218

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2014090300 | 2014090218 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014080800 | 2014080712 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014090212 | 2014090200 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014083012 | 2014083000 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014080800 | 2014080712 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Wed Sep 3 06:58:09 UTC 2014