Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the UKMET analysis of extratropical transition of Ignacio and "landfall" near the Alaskan border as a weakening extratropical storm.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2016082900 GFS: 2016082900
NAVGEM: 2016082900 UKM: 2016082906

Current/recent GFDL model output:
eight08l:2016082906 gaston07l:2016082906
invest91l:2016082806 invest99l:2016082812
lester13e:2016082906 madeline14e:2016082906

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
eight08l:2016082900 gaston07l:2016082900
lester13e:2016082900 lionrock12w:2016082900
madeline14e:2016082900 nine09l:2016082818

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al072016:2016082906 al082016:2016082900
al092016:2016082900 al912016:2016082812
al992016:2016082812 ep132016:2016082906
ep142016:2016082906 wp122016:2016082906

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2016082900 | 2016082818 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2016082900 | 2016082812 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2016082900 | 2016082812 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2016082900 | 2016082812 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2016082900 | 2016082812 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Mon Aug 29 12:42:27 UTC 2016