Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the ECMWF analysis of record intense hurricane Dorian's lifecycle from Atlantic wave to rapidly intensifying to category 5 hurricane, to intense extratropically transitioning TC as it makes landfall at category 2 intensity in Nova Scotia, Canada.




Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2019101900 ECMWF: 2019101900 (RESTRICTED)
GFS: 2019101906 JMA: 2019101900
NAVGEM: 2019101900 UKMET: 2019101900

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
eighteen18e:2019101800 invest97w:2019101818
neoguri21w:2019101900 nestor16l:2019101900
octave18e:2019101900 sixteen16l:2019101812
twenty-tw22w:2019101900

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
eighteen18e:2019101800 nestor16l:2019101900
octave18e:2019101900 sixteen16l:2019101812

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al162019:2019101906 ep182019:2019101906
io972019:2019101812 wp212019:2019101900
wp222019:2019101900

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2019101906 | 2019101900 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2019101900 | 2019101812 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2019101812 | 2019101800 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2019101812 | 2019101800 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2019101812 | 2019101800 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Sat Oct 19 11:52:19 UTC 2019