Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the ECMWF analysis of record intense hurricane Dorian's lifecycle from Atlantic wave to rapidly intensifying to category 5 hurricane,
to intense extratropically transitioning TC as it makes landfall at category 2 intensity in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2021092100 ECMWF: 2021092106 (RESTRICTED)
GFS: 2021092106 JMA: 2021092100
NAVGEM: 2021092106 UKMET: 2021092100

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
invest90s:2021092106 invest98l:2021092106
invest99w:2021092106 peter16l:2021092106

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
invest98l:2021092106 peter16l:2021092106

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al152021:2021092106 al162021:2021092106
al172021:2021092100 al982021:2021092100
sh902022:2021092100 wp992021:2021092100

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2021092106 | 2021092100 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2021092100 | 2021092012 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2021092100 | 2021092012 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2021092100 | 2021092012 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2021092100 | 2021092012 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Tue Sep 21 13:54:47 UTC 2021