Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

Note: ECMWF analyses are provided by TIGGE and delayed by 2-3 days by ECMWF.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case a GFS ensemble forecast of the extratropical transition of a
WPAC Typhoon that eventually becomes an intense warm seclusion extratropical cyclone).

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2014121900 ECMWF: 2014121612
GFS: 2014122006 NAVGEM: 2014121900
UKM: 2014121906

Current/recent GFDL model output:
No recent GFDL runs

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
No recent NCEP HWRF runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
New multi-satellite synthesis

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 20nohup.out | 2014121906 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014121812 | 2014121800 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014121812 | 2014121800 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014121900 | 2014121812 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014121812 | 2014121800 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Sat Dec 20 12:08:03 UTC 2014