Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case the lifecycle over 10 days of UKMET analyses
of major hurricane Blanca showing prototypical TC growth and decay without any midlatitude interaction).



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2015082712 GFS: 2015082718
NAVGEM: 2015082712 UKM: 2015082712

Current/recent GFDL model output:
erika05l:2015082718 ignacio12e:2015082718
invest96e:2015082612 jimena13e:2015082718
kilo03c:2015082718 loke04c:2015082618
thirteen13e:2015082700

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
erika05l:2015082718 ignacio12e:2015082718
invest96e:2015082612 jimena13e:2015082718
kilo03c:2015082718 loke04c:2015082618
thirteen13e:2015082700

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al052015:2015082718 cp032015:2015082718
cp042015:2015082618 ep122015:2015082718
ep132015:2015082718 ep962015:2015082618
wp162015:2015082612 wp902015:2015082718

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2015082718 | 2015082712 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2015082712 | 2015082700 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2015082712 | 2015082700 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2015082712 | 2015082700 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2015082712 | 2015082700 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Fri Aug 28 02:09:11 UTC 2015