Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the UKMET analysis of extratropical transition of Ignacio and "landfall" near the Alaskan border as a weakening extratropical storm.




Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2016092600 GFS: 2016092600
JMA: 2016092600 NAVGEM: 2016092600
UKM: 2016092512

Current/recent GFDL model output:
eighteen18e:2016092600 invest94e:2016092512
invest96e:2016092600 invest97l:2016092600
karl12l:2016092506 lisa13l:2016092500

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
eighteen18e:2016092600 invest94e:2016092512
invest96e:2016092600 invest97l:2016092600
karl12l:2016092506 lisa13l:2016092500
megi20w:2016092600

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al122016:2016092512 al132016:2016092500
al972016:2016092606 ep182016:2016092606
ep942016:2016092512 ep962016:2016092606
wp202016:2016092606 wp982016:2016092518

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2016092600 | 2016092518 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2016092512 | 2016092500 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2016092512 | 2016092500 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2016092512 | 2016092500 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2016092512 | 2016092500 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Mon Sep 26 10:23:24 UTC 2016