Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case the lifecycle over 10 days of UKMET analyses
of major hurricane Blanca showing prototypical TC growth and decay without any midlatitude interaction).

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2015070600 GFS: 2015070600
NAVGEM: 2015070500 UKM: 2015070600

Current/recent GFDL model output:
invest95e:2015070600 invest96e:2015070600

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
chan-hom09w:2015070600 invest95e:2015070600
invest96e:2015070600 linfa10w:2015070600
nangka11w:2015070600 raquel25p:2015070500

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
ep952015:2015070606 ep962015:2015070606
sh252016:2015070600 wp092015:2015070518
wp102015:2015070600 wp112015:2015070606

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2015070600 | 2015070518 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015070512 | 2015070500 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015070500 | 2015070412 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015070412 | 2015070400 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015070412 | 2015070400 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Mon Jul 6 09:09:48 UTC 2015