Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the UKMET analysis of extratropical transition of Ignacio and "landfall" near the Alaskan border as a weakening extratropical storm.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2016102212 GFS: 2016102212
JMA: 2016102212 NAVGEM: 2016102212
UKM: 2016102218

Current/recent GFDL model output:
invest90e:2016102112 invest91e:2016102212

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
invest90e:2016102112 invest91e:2016102212
invest99b:2016102212 invest99l:2016102200

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al992016:2016102200 ep902016:2016102212
ep912016:2016102218 io992016:2016102218

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2016102212 | 2016102206 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2016102212 | 2016102200 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2016102212 | 2016102200 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2016102012 | 2016102000 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2016102012 | 2016102000 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Sat Oct 22 23:23:23 UTC 2016