Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case the UKMET) forecast extratropical transition of Ignacio and a day after transition is completed, landfall near the Alaskan border as an extratropical storm.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2015090400 GFS: 2015090400
NAVGEM: 2015090400 UKM: 2015090400

Current/recent GFDL model output:
fourteen14e:2015090306 fred06l:2015090400
ignacio12e:2015090206 jimena13e:2015090400

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
fourteen14e:2015090306 fred06l:2015090400
ignacio12e:2015090400 invest91l:2015090400
jimena13e:2015090400 kevin14e:2015090400

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al062015:2015090406 al912015:2015090406
cp032015:2015090406 ep122015:2015090406
ep132015:2015090406 ep142015:2015090406

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2015090400 | 2015090318 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2015090312 | 2015090300 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2015090400 | 2015090312 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2015090400 | 2015090312 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2015090312 | 2015090300 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Fri Sep 4 10:18:38 UTC 2015