Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GFS analysis of intense typhoon Jongdari making landfall in Japan which had a Sandy-like track at high latitude, may have started (but likely did not complete) extratropical transition,
and had at least three instances of Fujiwhara interaction causing looping in the TC track before and after landfall.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2018102000 FV3-GFS: 2018102000
GFS: 2018102006 JMA: 2018102000
NAVGEM: 2018102000 UKM: 2018102000

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
invest90e:2018101906 invest97w:2018102006
invest99e:2018102000 twenty-fo24e:2018102006
twenty-th23e:2018101918 vicente23e:2018102006

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
invest90e:2018101906 invest99e:2018102000
twenty-fo24e:2018102006 twenty-th23e:2018101918

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
ep232018:2018102006 ep902018:2018101912
ep992018:2018102000 wp962018:2018102006
wp972018:2018102000 wp982018:2018102000

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2018102006 | 2018102000 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2018102000 | 2018101912 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2018102000 | 2018101912 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2018102000 | 2018101912 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2018102000 | 2018101912 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Sat Oct 20 12:22:22 UTC 2018