Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

Note: ECMWF analyses are provided by TIGGE and delayed by 2-3 days by ECMWF.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case a forecast of classic extratropical transition of S. Indian Ocean TC Bruce).

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2014082912 ECMWF: 2014082600
GFS: 2014082912 NAVGEM: 2014082912
UKM: 2014082912

Current/recent GFDL model output:
cristobal04l:2014082506 invest98l:2014082812

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
cristobal04l:2014082912 invest98l:2014082812

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
New multi-satellite synthesis
No recent AMSU retrievals

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2014082912 | 2014082906 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014080800 | 2014080712 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014082912 | 2014082900 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014081900 | 2014081812 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014080800 | 2014080712 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Fri Aug 29 22:22:44 UTC 2014