Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GEFS ensemble forecast of hurricane Ernesto's ET following Bermuda landfall.



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2026052600 ECMWF: 2026081200
GFS: 2026081206 JMA: 2026081206
NAVGEM: 2026081200 UKMET: 2026081200

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
chan-hom14w:2026081112 invest92l:2026081206
invest93c:2026081206 invest93l:2026081200
invest99e:2026081206 peilou13w:2026081112

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
No recent NCEP HMON runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
No recent AMSU retrievals

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2026010412 | 2026010406 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2026081200 | 2026081112 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2026081200 | 2026081112 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2026081100 | 2026081012 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2026081100 | 2026081012 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University


This page last updated: Wed Aug 12 12:45:11 UTC 2026