Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GEFS ensemble forecast of hurricane Ernesto's ET following Bermuda landfall.

Latest deterministic model output:

CMC:	2025100700	ECMWF:	2025100806
GFS:	2025100812	JMA:	2025100806
NAVGEM:	2025100806	UKMET:	2025100800

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:

invest95l: 2025100706
invest95l: 2025100706 jerry10l: 2025100806 jerry10l: 2025100806
octave15e: 2025100806
octave15e: 2025100806 priscilla16e: 2025100806 priscilla16e: 2025100806

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:

invest95l: 2025100706
invest95l: 2025100706 jerry10l: 2025100806 jerry10l: 2025100806
octave15e: 2025100806
octave15e: 2025100806 priscilla16e: 2025100806 priscilla16e: 2025100806

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:

No recent AMSU retrievals
No recent AMSU retrievals

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2025100806 | 2025100800 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2025100800 | 2025100712 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2025100800 | 2025100712 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2025100800 | 2025100712 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2025100800 | 2025100712 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

This page last updated: Wed Oct 8 17:21:18 UTC 2025