Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GEFS ensemble forecast of hurricane Ernesto's ET following Bermuda landfall.



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2025121700 ECMWF: 2025121706
GFS: 2025121706 JMA: 2025121706
NAVGEM: 2025121706 UKMET: 2025121700

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
bakung07s:2025121706 eight08p:2025121706
invest93s:2025121706

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
No recent NCEP HMON runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
No recent AMSU retrievals

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2025121706 | 2025121700 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2025110612 | 2025110600 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2025112900 | 2025112812 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2025101400 | 2025101312 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2025110612 | 2025110600 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University


This page last updated: Wed Dec 17 15:25:02 UTC 2025