Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GEFS ensemble forecast of hurricane Ernesto's ET following Bermuda landfall.



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2025071500 ECMWF: 2025071506
GFS: 2025071512 JMA: 2025071506
NAVGEM: 2025071506 UKMET: 2025071512

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
No recent NCEP HWRF runs

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
No recent NCEP HMON runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
No recent AMSU retrievals

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2025071512 | 2025071506 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2025021712 | 2025021700 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2025070712 | 2025070700 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2025070700 | 2025070600 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2025021712 | 2025021700 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Tue Jul 15 19:41:05 UTC 2025