The main purpose of these discussions is see how the confidence is
behaving and what synoptic features are causing the low or high
confidence.  FEEDBACK of any kind (good, bad, terrible) is certainly
welcome and should be directed to <a
href=mailto:andrew.durante@constellation.com>andrew.durante@constellation.com</A>.  
*If you are
reading this discussion for the first time, I recommend that you first
visit the <a href=http://moe.met.fsu.edu/confidence/project.html>project
description page</A>*. <HR> Current Confidence Discussion 5/1/2009
(13:25 EDT)-  The range of temperature forecasts for the middle and 
second half of next week have been all over the place.  WSI and EarthSat 
are on opposite sides of the spectrum from DCA through LGA.  WSI has 
upper 70s while EarthSat has mostly upper 80s.  The National Weather 
Service is more on the cooler side with upper 70s and lower 80s.  
Corresponding forecast confidence graphics are showing fairly low 
confidence during the time period.
<P>
Seems like the low confidence is mostly due to the mishandling of the 
storm track by the GFS.  Lately the model has been having trouble on how 
far east to bring the main storm track.  Compared to last weekend's heat 
spike, where the Bermuda high nosed into the Southeast, the center of 
the high looks to be further to the east for next week, prompting more 
of a southerly to south-southeasterly flow.  With water temperatures off 
the coast still in the 50s, it seems more prudent to go with a cooler 
solution, even if the storm track ends up being further west.  Maybe the 
confidence graphics are trying to depict times where the temp could 
potentially pop if we get some brief clearing.
<P>
As a side note, it's very interesting that last weekend's heat spike 
came with relatively high confidence, with the exception of New England 
where the confidence graphics showed low confidence about 3 to 4 days 
ahead of time associated with the backdoor high.