FSU/NWS TLH COMET Experimental Forecast Confidence Graphics

Robert Hart and Andrew Durante, Florida State University
Irv Watson, SOO, NWS TLH
Richard Grumm, SOO, NWS CTP
Walter Drag, LF, NWS PHI


This is a COMET-funded project to develop forecast confidence measures using NCEP Ensembles. The end goal is to implement these measures for real-time use within the NWS web-based graphical forecasts. A more detailed discussion of the project and its goals, along with answers to frequently asked questions can be found here.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.


Below you will find a 5-day forecast confidence map from the latest GFS ensemble run. Links to other forecast times are available below.

Confidence graphics/research presented at the 86th AMS Annual Meeting in Atlanta, GA

Confidence Discussion

Jump to other forecast hour:
(2-m Temp): [ 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 150 156 162 168 174 180 Animation ]

(10-m Wind): [ 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 150 156 162 168 174 180 Animation ]

(10-m Wind of tropical Atlantic): [0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 150 156 162 168 174 180 Animation ]

(Spaghetti Plots of 2m Temp): [0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 150 156 162 168 174 180]

(10-m vorticity):[ 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 150 156 162 168 174 180 Animation]

(Spaghetti plots of 10m vorticity):[0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 150 156 162 168 174 180]

Approximate posting times: 00Z - 0800 EDT ::: 06Z - 1400 EDT ::: 12Z - 2000 EDT ::: 18Z - 0200 EDT


Below you will find a timeseries of forecast confidence of 2m temperature and 10m wind speed for Tallahassee out to 180hr from the latest GFS ensemble run. Links to other cities are available below.

TLH thumbnail TLH thumbnail

Jump to other city (2m temp and 10m wind): [ ABQ AFA AGS ALB AMA ANC APN ATL AVP BGM BHM BIL BIS BNA BOI BOS BTV BUF BUR CAE CAR CHA CHS CLE CLT CYS DCA DEN DET DFW DLH DSM EKN ELP EYW GCC GLD GRB HOU ICT IND ISN JAN JAX LAX LBB LIT MCI MEM MIA MOB MSN MSO MSP NEW NYC OKC OMA ORD ORL PDX PHL PHX PIT PNS PWM RAP RDU RHP RIC SAC SAN SBN SEA SFO SLC SUX SYR TLH TRI TTS TUS TYS UNV VCT VJI ]

Jump to INTERNATIONAL citites (2m temp and 10m wind): [ CYAM CYOW CYQK CYQT CYSB CYTS CYYZ EBBR EDDI EDDM EGLL EHAM EIDW FAPR LEVS LFPO LIRA LLBG LOWW MMMX ZBAA ]

A recent archive of past model runs can be found here

Acknowledgements

Confidence Thesis